Hi all, what a difference a Pandemic makes...I consigned FAR to the bottom drawer for the long term and also withdrew from posting several weeks ago as the forum was decending into a pissing contest amongst a small number of posters, nothing has changed except the shareprice..anyway I felt it was time to drop by.
There seems to be a process of grief as is often the case when people see their investment shrink and the final stage, after considerable ranting and finger pointing , is acceptance, there is no other option anyway.
Regardless of the various theories on what could have or should been done , all with the benefit of hindsight, it makes little difference, we are in the grips of a Pandemic which realistically can't be planned for. You can't run any business with the expectation it could get wiped out at anytime otherwise you would never start in the first place.
FAR has always carried significant risk simply because it had no income , was in the highest risk sector of the industry , required significant debt to achieve its aims and was always years away from production..However that has always been the case and at no time did FAR shrink away from its goal of taking its 13.7% stake to production , so that has always been known to investors whether they agreed with it or not and the choice to continue holding is purely in the hands of those who bought in the first place.
I have no real issues with Managment they actually achieved an extraordinary amount given the David and Goliath situation they involved themselves in, if you dont like risk invest elsewhere.
In many ways, aside from discovering SNE , if it wasn't for bad luck it would have no luck at all , the industry had it's biggest downturn in years after the discovery, making appraisal very expensive in terms of dilution, then just as they tried to secure funding for the final push the industry has entered probably the biggest downturn it's ever had...I'm not sure what happened with the binding contract but in a seismic event such as this and with force majeure as a bailout option, I doubt any contracts are totally secure at the moment.
The irony is FAR is in considerably better shape than many oil Companies at the moment simply by having cash and no debt and its obligations getting further into the distance by the day, there is carnage in the shale patch.If nothing else we have bought time.The biggest cure for low oil prices is a low oil price.
As it stands we do have obligations and at some stage means something has to be done and merging with WPL is quite likely. Another possible option at the moment would be to give SNE to WPL in exchange for a royalty deal on the field providing future income, retain the cash we have with Gambia being a possibility in the future.
I doubt a discovery at SAMO or success with Arbitration would have made much difference to our situation at the moment, SAMO would have required appraisal to prove up and would be going on right now most likely. Arbitration would still be ongoing. If the binding finance was binding we would have obligations with that coming up as well.
However the situation has changed so much It's really hard to say what might happen, but whichever way you look at it it's been an interesting ride but a disappointing investment. I carry no grudges as I invested with full knowledge of the Companies intentions and supported it, so the problem is mine. If you invest what you can afford to lose in any Company there is no reason to lose sleep or hair..
So they remain in the bottom drawer untill a resolution is found...we are dealing with a situation nobody alive has been through and is going to send a lot of Companies to the knackers yard
Cheers Whisky
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