I think firstly the deal to acquire the 20% has to be done with Far stepping in between the Govt & Erin and to pay Erin's $5M tax liability in lieu of acquiring their 20%. I don't think there is any way that Govt will let Erin continue as a going concern whilst they have this debt and a parent in Chpt11 so it's a win/win and sensible deal - apart from poor Erin.
Next question, as you say, is to hold or sell down. They seem pretty confident (55%) that oil is down there with SNE experience and seismics/geology/etc but may be prudent to sell some more down for cash (and less cost contribution if things go awry?). Personally I'd roll the dice.
WPL may be interested in acquiring Gambia % as apparently they could be about to lose some of their existing interest in the surrounding area...
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