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FAR Ltd shrugs off oil sector woes with ambitious Senegal venture, page-18

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hardmano

16,281 Posts.

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10/11/15

15:52

Post #: 16363134
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Originally posted by pj ↑

Re: "I have commented before like this article does that given the size of the SNE field at more than 100 square km its not a stretch to imagine it is way bigger than thus far stated"

Yes H, I too have long considered how far our imagination needs to be stretched. With this in mind as part of my table I added a little calculation "cheater". For a 100sq km field using the typical porosity etc parameters encountered at SNE1 all we seem to need is an net pay of 25m and 45% recovery to achieve a billion barrels at SNE alone.

But these are AVERAGES over the whole field and Cairn have indicated only a 10% chance of achieving 670mb. FAR has the areal coverage of the oil water contact even higher than Cairns 100sq km, so the possibility of 1 billion barrels must be there so what is the problem?

1. For a start, these are averages of all numbers assume continuity of all sands over the whole stated area ie not some in patches as perhaps indicated in FAR’s “wispy” illustrations of the thinner type sands and continuity of all the other stated numbers. In practice this would have to be proven up bit by bit and well by well and three wells are not going to do that.

2. Although we have a stated 30m net pay in SNE1 and expected 40m net pay for SNE2 we certainly can’t extrapolate those numbers over the whole area as both these wells will have been drilled on the thickest parts of FAR’s illustrated N/S blocky structure.

3. Although the bottom blocky sands are expected to be prolific they dip away to the East or SE and the remaining top thinner sands seem to be more of an unknown.

4. We do know that in arriving at 330mb 2C Cairn have allocated a “high” recovery factor to the blocky sands and a “lower” one to the thinner sands.

5. We don’t know what percentage of the whole structure contains the expected highly productive blocky sands and how much over the whole area is thinner sands.

6. Whatever, it seems likely from the images provided by CAIRN and FAR that at least half this 100+ sq km will be made up of the thinner sands with net pay and productive efficiency obviously decreasing the further out you go.

Therefore my own suspicion is that, assuming the blocky sands perform as expected, the key to increasing the resource significantly will be in the productivity of the thinner sands at SNE2 and also at SNE3 which will test the thinner sands at the southern periphery of the structure.
Also I don't know how much each additional well will be taken to prove up, in my tables I have been assuming about 20sq km at a time leaving 25sq km to the east unproven after SNE4.

Hope this makes sense, it is of course speculation and FAR have indicated they will be letting us know what the actual results mean in the event of them indicating a "material change".

pj

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pj

Thanks for those thoughts on the size of SNE. For the ultimate reserves to match what looks like the upside potential (670mbbls+) we will need to see good productivity at the two appraisals (and a continuation of the high quality reservoir sands tothe Bel1 location) and good connectivity and consistently good oil and reservoir rock quality.

Cath has been fairly conspicuously touting the likelihood of the thinner sands (even thinner than those included so far in the CR estimates) adding to the reservoir size .. so that's encouraging generally for any of the sands that are thinner than those described as blocky IMHO.

Cheers

H

FAR Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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FAR Ltd shrugs off oil sector woes with ambitious Senegal venture, page-18

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FAR Ltd shrugs off oil sector woes with ambitious Senegal venture, page-18

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