Hi Tones
Re: "My guess is they used a conservative RF for the poorest sand within the net pay, and used that in the modelling across the board"
That is exactly what I am saying - for "poorest" sand read the top "thinner" sands. ie if recovery from these are shown to be in excess of what Cairn have assumed then all else being equal their estimates of recoverable volumes should increase.
Re:"The fact that they are saying that the thin sands were not included in the estimates supports this"
This is a source if confusion. Cairn have never said this. FAR have stated that there are "additional thin sands" which have not been included in Cairn's original estimates (which remain current). I'm sorry I thought I had made that clear in my posts above/below.
With respect to the expected net pay at pay SNE2, as I have explained previously, from the point of view of how to interpret the results I too have been interested in this. However, with FAR's assurance on the 2nd Nov that they will "only provide material information when we have sufficient confidence to minimise misunderstanding and ensure the market will be properly informed" this no longer seems to be so important as it looks like such results are unlikely to be released without an interpretive comment by FAR as to what the implications are for SNE as a whole.
pj
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