Far Pre-Trade 16th October

Ladies and Gentleman,

Happy Friday. It sounds like the Athena should leave this weekend and therein we are only perhaps a fortnight away from the spud and the real price action;

In terms of overnight trading, we have green in COP, CNE and Brent.
A stack of detail around FAR here to any newcomers including broker reports reports click here.

Overnight action

CNE up marginally;
Ksingh, great find on Blackrock now having a blocking stake



COP up around the same amount






After spending two days sub $50 USD, Oil back up over








Still not a lot for sale under 10 cents.

  

Today's fun google fact;
Why do they call it a white elephant?
The term "white elephant" refers to an extravagant but burdensome gift which cannot be easily disposed of, supposedly after the King of Siam gifted rare albino elephants to courtiers who had displeased him, that they might be ruined by the animals' upkeep costs.

What's next;
The Athena as I understand it will leave the 17th -19th of October.

Keep an eye out for a great deal of promotion and news-flow over the next few months. To anyone doubting the promotion, think about the amount of time and energy that would have gone into the Video released by FAR, this is but an entree of things to come IMHO.

The Video btw has now hit 1,400 views already -
With the Junior Oil Trusts Video with more than 1200 -

Both definitely worth a watch. Have a great Friday.

BTW, I have been playing around with Edison's research taking CNE's research and applying it to FAR, I like their model as it is simpler to understand than what I have used historically, that said - it is VERY conservative.
I have added in the rest of our leases and tried to attribute values based on other analyst info and such, and tuned GB down a little post some feedback - although I still think that GB is VERY exciting and valuable to FAR;

The reality is that we are still under a tight-hole policy, with massive upside that is not represented in this sheet - SNE should add around 310MMBLS in the upcoming programme, Bellatrix on success will increase the surrounding targets size and COS.

Post this coming programme, i.e in the next few months - the green's and yellow's should be de-risked taking us well beyond 33 cents. Remember if SNE is what I think it is - this should add another 8 cents to this value. Furthermore, once FAR and co, start to "Reveal the Prize", we should have a few pleasant surprises in store.

IMHO, $1 is not a pipe-dream especially in a competitive takeover, the following table is VERY conservative. A good read is the Jubilee story and the increase in value attributed to Kosmos on truing up the Jubilee find. The total net to FAR un-risked from the following is 619MMBLS - at the P50 stage for Senegal only, (similar to the stage we are at now - Kosmos had only 23% of 350MMBLS). This was subsequently trued up to 3BBLS STOOIP, or 800MMBLS recoverable. Kosmos were offered $5B primarily for their share of Jubilee - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-to-offer-5-billion-for-kosmos-jubilee-stake

At 800MMBLS recoverable, with 23% - this is 184MMBLS net to Kosmos. Post the upcoming programme, it is conceivable that FAR would have de-risked more than this - albeit we will be further away from production from when Kosmos received their offer, not withstanding FAR has their bluesky component or global assets to add on top. Also remember, the $5B offer is in USD.

  

Workings here

GLTAH, DYOR
Don't let the capper take your shares...

2015 - revealing the prize;
Courtesy - http://www.far.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/20150902-FAR-Good-Oil-presentation.pdf (Page 21);