With respect to attributed value of oil and potential oil being...

With respect to attributed value of oil and potential oil being discounted appropriately here are the values currently used in my spreadsheets. All this data is available in the Oct FAR spreadsheet post, but because there is such a maze of data it might help to extract some bits separately:



These values are referenced to Cairns attributed values for a 330mb field (they are actually slightly higher as I have allowed for a further discounting of costs).
In the table examples for SNE/Bellatrix containing more than 330mb these values are further increased by up to x 1.4 for a ~750mb total because of efficiency factors involved in having more oil in the same place.

I also reproduce below from the original Oct post the rationale behind these values and other aspects of the sheet.

Illustrative list of main RATIONALE and PROCESS in spreadsheet development:
1. Take Cairn’s NPV at FID estimates for 330mb based on 10% cost reduction at US$70 and 20% at US$50 as starting reference.
2. Create life of field costs and return table and check my interpretation of the meaning of “NPV at FID” is reasonable and that I am on the right track.
3. Use these tables to estimate effect of further decreases in estimated costs.
4. Correct initial 2P reference values for further cost reductions as Cairn indicated this might be appropriate.
5. Grade these values across a range of oil prices.
6. Apply 25% market discount to these values.
7. Discount them further for time to FID at 8% a year.
8. Discount 2C further by an amount that is calibrated to reflect the current market price.
9. Discount pre 2C undrilled by a further amount calibrated to fit pre SNE and FAN market prices.
10. Use life of field cost tables to estimate and build in efficiency premiums for SNE volume estimates above 330.
11. Use company issued POS guidance to risk undrilled resources.
12. Build in efficiency premiums for undrilled resources capable of tie back.
13. Add other non Senegal estimate by rough comparison with PCL.
14. Build in 5% and later 10% takeover premium into share price.
15. Add value of cash reserves
16. Automatically expense well cost estimates and generate new shares to maintain a balance of AUD$50 million as costs are expensed.
17. Use estimated share value at the time of issue to estimate number of shares required to do this at 85% market discount and recalculate post issue value.
18. Create Net Pay translation to convert net pay for wells into ball park OIP place and estimated recoverable reserves from data provided for SNE 1.
19. Due to insufficient available information on effective areas and net pay assumptions used in Cairns original 2C estimates these are illustrative only.
20 Net pay translation can be ignored as they do not affect table estimates for the stated oil volume amounts.

pj