@nsw004, in
this analysis for NVA's Thompson Bros I calculated average resource growth based on peer analysis as follows:
Average Growth from Maiden JORC: For a selected number of ASX-listed resources I've looked up earlier resource estimates. This group has then been used to calculate average project upside following a maiden JORC.
The average growth in resource size is 232%.
So based on the original exploration target 9.0Mt to 13.0Mt that will get us into the 20.9Mt to 30.2Mt ballpark.
These are the company timelines:
View attachment 1101151
I think it will play out as follows:
- August 2018 - Maiden JORC in 9.0Mt to 13.0Mt range (see company timeline above)
- Q2 2019 - Resource Update at around 20Mt to 26Mt ( see comments below )
For the Resource Update in 2019, I don't think it is efficient use of funds to go beyond 20Mt, I'd prefer funds spent on infill drilling to support a PFS, even a resource of 9.0Mt to 13.0Mt would be enough for a starter operation.
Just looking at the
visible/known pegmatites within the core Thompson Bros Property and Sherritt Gordon I think that a tripling of the resource to get us into 27Mt to 39Mt range ( from 9Mt to 13Mt ) is conceivable with Thompson Bros / Sherritt Gordon combined.
As for the
adjacent new ground, there has not been much historic exploration. The prospectivity of the new ground is noted in historic records. We do have consulting geologists working for Nova and an
exploration manager ( Mr Dale Schultz P.Geo ). We can assume that combined expertise would have been used in conducting due diligence associated with taking on the new claims.
I do know that early exploration activities in the area involved stripping overburden using water jets to expose the pegmatite dykes, so often the dykes are hidden.
Not much of a stretch to get to the 50Mt ballpark with any additional pegmatites on the new ground ( noting above up to 40Mt seems conceivable on Thompson Bros and Sherritt Gordon, just with the known pegmatite Dykes ).
So yes, 50mt eventually seems conceivable with the total ground we now have and assuming 1.05% Li20, that would get us to a contained metal resource of 525kt ( same ballpark as Nemaska ). I'd give it 4-5 years for enough drilling/exploration to get us to that level. That's not the focus though. We should have done enough drilling to date to define a 9.0Mt to 13.0Mt resource (by end August) and that is enough to get the ball rolling on studies for developing a starter pit.
(20min delay)