How about this one...
Scenario 1.
Appraisal continues with WPL as the defacto holder of 35%
Appraisal is a dud - no connectivity - non commercial.
COP still gets minimum return of $430M for their share.
Scenario 2.
Appraisal continues with WPL as the defacto holder of 35%
Appraisal continues with awesome results - 1.3B barrels recoverable from SNE alone and commerciality called by CNE/JV.
COP (through a subsidiary) approaches CNE and AVQ to purchase their pre-emptive rights parcels to the 35% in exchange for a free increase in their economic interest in the block (say 5% for CNE and 2% for FAR). COP interest reduced by 7% to 28% but it can now book 364M barrels as 2P. FAR's 17% 2P now becomes 221M barrels.
COP has paid nothing to reduce their at risk capital to zero while retaining considerable upside throughout the appraisal /commerciality decision phase.
CNE happy, FAR happy, COP happy - Woodside sad for the lost opportunity of the decade, but still have their $430M to try and find a home for.
Risk reduction in action.
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