Post SNE2 TVD pre- flow test 500mb Table update Another fall in...

Post SNE2 TVD pre- flow test 500mb Table update

Another fall in Brent overnight, and love it or hate it, and with J curve in mind, here we go with a new update for your weekend perusal. Market forecast and Takeover target tables for the “preferred” 500mb case only, on this occasion.

I’ve had to modify the “$A relative to the Brent oil price assumption row” I recently added into the referenced spread sheet as it wasn’t behaving itself very well (Brent falling – $A static). That’s understandable I guess, lots more things than the oil price that affect the $A/US$ exchange.

Also I’ve flattened the exchange rate out a bit for the case of higher oil prices, resulting in “J curve oil bounce” share forecasts a tad higher than previous. Would be even higher if you leave the A$ unchanged at it’s present rate .... now that’s is an interesting thought, a combination of J curve and the A$ remaining low might lead to an A$ oil price higher than what we had at the start of the oil price fall last November

I’ve also added and costed another two wells for the forward contingent well program to complete the progress SNE recoverable to 500mb “proven” and added a “*** Progress status” marker to make it a bit easier to see where we’re currently at.

And please note that for this posting at least, the “add BEL 1 row” total return at the bottom of the tables is now based on adding it to 500mb SNE proven (post the 2 extra contingent wells) and not onto the 390 proven, 110 contingent as in the November tables.


Market Forecast Progress to SNE 500mb Table



Takeover Target Table for the same



As before, please refer to links in previous full releases for disclaimers, spreadsheet examples and assumption rationale (HC search )

pj