I don’t think there will be much pre-spud Eagle gain, maybe up...

I don’t think there will be much pre-spud Eagle gain, maybe up to 11.0/11.5c. The energy sector has been flat to weak for a few weeks so a bit of apathy has set in, but there are currently signs of a pickup.

Also, I’ve noticed a slight trend towards companies having a capital raising or SPP before drilling commences rather than after the results. Makes sense for the company to take advantage of any pre-spud run up, as most results a dusters, but it will cause the potential pre-spud SP to reduce. This probably won’t apply to FAR this time around, but it will affect the market’s attitude to towards pre-spud gains potential in general.

What I like about Eagle is the fact that it’s more like a development well rather than a wildcat. There’s almost certainly going to be oil and/or gas shows during drilling regardless of whether it’s a commercially viable end result. This means there will almost certainly be an announcement during/after drilling of oil/gas shows, which in turn will boost the SP.

Should the FAR SP only have a small (if any) pre-spud gain and also dip after spud is announced, I think the best SP boost will occur during/after drilling in this case. Obviously if Eagle goes on to become a commercial success then the SP will benefit even more.

Eagle looks like being one of the rare cases that buying pre-spud and selling/holding during drilling will probably produce greater gains than the traditional “buy early sell before spud”. Looks like a good time to buy FAR right now in the 10.5/11c range.

Mensa.