FAR, page-39

NPV my friend NPV based on a range of future cashflow scenarios.

Thats how yu work out  but I say this if you bought at 7c i wouldnt worry too much because if all positive the sp will go over 15x your money.

Look its great to speculate but so many moving parts and every investor has different goals and requirements so the only qiuestion one should ask is what is my personal exit strategy and is it reasonable and alot of that has to do with holding period.

For example if samo come in and they start making nice cashflows then this gives them the ability for alot more exploration and chance of success or failure as the case maybe - but thats ten years away. If you just hold for say 20x money or 10x then different scenario.

So thats the excitement and skill in investing in oil exploration companies. My advice sit back and see what happens but have your personal exit plan worked out