Hi All,, The guessing game continues but some drums are sounding...

Hi All,,

The guessing game continues but some drums are sounding a bit louder and a bit more on the positive side than the market would currently suggest.

I think anyone who shorts from here is playing a low prob event to, maybe, 6c. So a 10-20% chance of up to a 25% gain. The probability risk has moved much more in favour to the upside.

I'm still of the camp which does not believe a T/O is the best play here; despite WPL's historic tendency to use this card. Reason being that FAR are still price takers at this stage. Given the sale process for COP's interest and known sell down strategy for CNE's, FAR cannot be a price maker at this stage...(but let's wait to see the outcome of the PE (!)) "bang, bang" go the drums.

The actual corporate reality is that FAR does not have a strategic percentage (at this stage). COP's 35% and FAR's 15% is still short of the necessary control level for this JV.

This JOA has a minimum control vote (for expenditure decision) of 60%...so adding FAR wont get WPL' 35% (or the entity who may get it) over the line for control.

This unplanned detour into a legal/corporate closet has certainly held up any real valuation momentum gained from this year's highly successful drilling and analysis.

But if its not obvious to all, CN and the team wouldnt be fighting for it if the prize was not worth it....very worth it.

Cheers,

PS; To those posters having snipes at each other.....please grow the f*ck up.