Farmout metrics?

So... even while the energy market is hurting, I know a couple of posters have wondered what might be possible if BRU is able to undertake a farmout next year. The challenge is, unlike most of the gas plays in Australia, past farmouts have been very much green field focused, i.e. (the only exception IMHO is Chevron with BPT and ORG with SXY to a less extent in the Cooper Basin).

Also, to complicate matters further, most of the plays farmed into were focused on just gas, not liquids rich plays, i.e like in the U.S Eagleford etc.

Lastly, as above, most farmouts have been greenfields (or to use the broker term - Frontier basins), BRU will soon be at the next stage, brownfield, albeit still early days, BUT.... BRU have 10 wells across the basin that have proven the characteristics of the BCGA, so I feel we should be able to attain the sort of metrics that Chevron provided versus some of the smaller farmins.

This may end up being a big post, as really, there has been a large amount of farmins, but none have had proven liquids rich and gas resources, especially when you look at the size of what will hopefully be recoverable. AWE recently got very excited about it Perth Basin gas discoveries (gas only) (well done to them), however, the numbers when compared to the Luarel Gas play totally pale in comparrison. Yes, geography is not to the advantage of BRU yet, however, if you look at a map of the Gas pipelines across Austarlia, the Canning will be the logical place to join the Eastern and Western seaboard gas markets (yes, we are talking a big pipeline, but.... that is well into the future.

Ok...

We have some basic metrics through which to look at avearge farmin prices per acre. I did a couple of posts on this... oh god. Years ago. Not even sure I can find them. Anyway, here is a somewhat dated slide showing some of the metrics across Australia. (All number below are in AUD currency or have been converted to such)

Chevron (2013)- $718 per acre ($349 m) (cash upfront plus carry)
Cooper Basin with BPT
BPT Chev Farmin

Origin Energy (2014)- $1050 per acre ($252m) (free carry)
Cooper Basin with SXY
Org Farmin

AED (American Energy 2015) - $12 per acre ($361m approx with free carry, cash injection and debt facility to allow development)
McArthur Basin Queensland/NT
AED farmin AJQ
(just to put some perspective on this, AJQ has an MC of just $55 million. Not much less than BRU, and BRU is waaaay ahead of AJQ in many many aspects. Also, AJQ had a 100% equity position, but gave up 75% of then acreage.
Lastly, much of AJQ acreage is not prospective, if/when BRU do do a further farmout of its tenements, it will be focused on the Laurel BCGA, which will mean a smaller amount of acres, but.... much more valuable IMHO.




This is from 2013, while I think some of the numbers are a little off, they are close enough to give you an idea of value.
Below are some more recent numbers from broker reports on AJQ website.









Hmmm.. ok.
After much searching I found this stupidly long post.
I will just take the parts I want, but for those interested... (and please, yes, the SP was 10x what it is now, ouch!)
Back in the day when BRU was worth a lot! ha

If I have more time, I will hopefully be able to better estimate what a possible partner would pay for acreage that solely covers the Laurel BCGA. Just need a bit of time and a seriously good babysitter for the kids