Cheers hOOts, sadly I am just aiming to break even, as I made quite a few mistakes with BRU over the past 8 years. Like you, I agree that the oil/gas sector will be the first to bounce back, or heres hoping at least!
btw - In the old days, I did allow myself to get carried away a bit, to my detriment as you know. Hopefully those days have past, bit older and a bit more cynical, ha.
So... some basic calculations going from what I have and what I assume a possible farmin partner would want (i.e. they would want control of the whole Laurel BCGA), here is a list of the tenemets BRU have an interest in. Then its simply, how many acres, how much BRU % holds and the multiply them by whatever number makes your head spin, or.... more rationally, what a entity might be willing to pay and in what manner the transaction will be formed (cash injection, free carry, debt facilities, cornerstone placement at a premium etc) I have my own preference for any transaction, a good start would be something similar to either Chevrons deal with BPT, or AEDs deal with AJQ, or a mix would be even better.
EP 436 - 595k acres 50% - 297.5k
EP 428 - 1.59m acres 50%- 795k
EP 371 - 910k acres 50%-455k
EP 557 & EP 458 - 2,63m acres 37.5%- 986k
(Can only find total amount /\)
STP-EPA-0044- 1.942m acres 100%- 1.942m
STP-EPA-0022- 842k acres 100%- 842k
STP-EPA-0021- 980k acres 100%- 980k
TOTAL Net acres to BRU with the Laurel BCGA in it - 6.3 million acres NET to BRU.
(I will put in the caveat, that Mitsubishi may have the right to farm into the last 3 tenements at a price similar to their original farm in price (approx $17 per acres)- but unknown at this stage. If so, I believe BRU would receive approx (3.76m acres total, 50% to Mitsubishi might cost them at a minimum, approx $32 million). If this was to occur, BRU would have net total acres to farmout of 4.42m acres.
As in my earlier post. $17 is what is paid for a frontier basin, not one with 10+ wells that have proven the existence of the BCGA, plus 3 wells which have been stimulated and (1 so far has proven there is gas, condensate and LPGs) hopefully all will prove up the resources that are believed to be there.
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So... what could BRU get from a farmin.
We know how many acres they have. We know they have gas, condensate and LPGs.
It is also hinted that there are other plays within the Laurel that may get proven up over time, some conventional and some unconventional... Although best to just work with the facts.
4.42 million acres. I am also going to assume BRU farmdown 50% of their net holding in the tenement, leaving 2.21 million acres.
Frontier price - $17 - $37m in funding (leave it very open for now as to what it might look like, interested to hear other thoughts!)
Brown fields? (i.e Cooper Basin) Anywhere from $137-1022? $302m - $2.26billion
Proven plays like in the U.S? Just take a look at AZZ for values. I could be way off, but something like $11k per acre? Hmm.. $24billion would be close to ramping I think. Still...
Anyway, looking forward to other thoughts. Too much thinking while at work is bad for you.
As always, DYOR!!!!!
And please, if my numbers are wrong, I would appreciate being corrected.
