Fast changing times for business's & uncertain Australian economic outlook

We all know and have seen the rapid pace of change for all business's and the disruptive technologies that are coming along and changing business's forever. No-one can argue with that, To me it is soul destroying seeing our great traditional companies fall aside.

How sad to see Myers getting pushed aside, largely by purchases on the internet. Boots Pharmacy in the U.K. announcing they are closing 150 of their retail stores, again because of internet purchases. Petrol stations are being sold internationally by Petrol companies as they can see the writing on the wall as electric cars and Hybrid cars are emerging at a fast clip and Toyota are saying in the next few years over approximately 50% of their production will be electric. Obviously this means there will be many closures of Petrol stations within the next few years.

Jason Gunn has positioned almost all of Oliver's business model on these petrol station sites. Fact not fiction. The problem Oliver's has, it cannot relocate it's business's to a busy shopping food hall as I do not think it can compete in this environment against many other competitively priced food options ranging from healthy food to many other various enticing selections. These food outlets are also run by owner operators. Hence one could say "We will have a problem growing Oliver's going forward as petrol stations close and our food offerings will not be embraced in a competitive environment ". Now some of you may say well what about "UBER EATS"?. Well the problem here is customers flick through a great menu of other enticing food offerings with Oliver's hiding there among a list of many. Uber also clip the ticket for 30% of the sale, so your profit is greatly affected and if you did an analysis Oliver's would probably lose money on every order they sold. There have been articles by existing food companies saying this right now, "we are losing money on every sale that goes out the door".

The Australian economy is not in good shape and many financial analysts are predicting strong headwinds ahead. There are many reasons among which are the U.S.A. putting tariffs on China. China's economy is slowing and no longer has the dollars to spend on our coal & iron ore. This has had a huge effect in Australia as we all know. Many of China's companies are fleeing to Vietnam & other cheaper wage economies that do not have the tariffs to the U.S.A. China is also building the "silk Road" China to Africa where there is an abundance of cheaper coal & iron ore. This is a real threat to the Australian economy.

Oliver's also has some heavy weight competitors to contend with like McDonald's (and many other's) who will not let their market share be taken away by the "pip squeak Oliver's". McDonald's and other World Wide fast food outlet's have sophisticated analysts with computer programmes analyzing competitors, food offerings and deep research into changing food habits and how they can continue to stay ahead and be market leader. Now can anyone seriously tell me Oliver's is going to dominate the "healthy food space"? McDonald's is already offering salads and other healthy food options and this will increase. Oliver's is a "Johnny come lately" to fast food and over time will in my opinion die away as it is attacked by other cheaper, better food offerings.

There is no doubt some, I say that again, some Australians are looking more at healthy food options and that is why you are seeing more offerings in super markets and fast food outlets.

To sum up: Petrol station sites will be closing as electric cars become more dominate, Oliver's cannot relocate into food halls, the cost structure is too high and their sales will be too low as they compete directly next door with other food offerings and Australian consumers may start to spend less as the economy slows down and Australian's lucky country status may tip into recession,

Oliver's is a penny dreadful stock that in my opinion will struggle to survive in the ever changing World and Australian economy.

when i invest i look at all these factors and think very carefully am i investing for emotional reasons or do I want a return on my money and will this business be around in 5 years and 10 years.

But always it is your money and you can do whatever you like with it.