"Launch Costs - you are assuming that SAS have committed and are utterly locked into only using Virgin one, AND that the commercial deal they made cost 10 to 12Mil USD without any proof of either."
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160913/pdf/43b4gypc1xswxj.pdf"four dedicated launches secured"
They are locked in to this launch - there has been no other announcement like this, other than an MOU with a Chinese launch provider of which there have been no further announcements or confirmations that the MOU has been executed to be a binding agreement.
So yes, they are locked in at this stage to Virgin.
$10-12m USD:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/06/virgin-orbit-launcherone-maiden-flight/"Currently, the price of a LauncherOne launch is approximately $12 million."
From the SAS half year report:
This 48million thats due by 31/12/2019 includes a contractual commitment to Virgin for just
one launch. Notice how this increased by 17 million since 30 June 2018? Most of this increase is attributable to the launch cost.
The only fantasy here is you looking at other launch providers rather than looking at cold hard facts given to us by SAS and Virgin Orbit.
Launch with Virgin, at this stage, is locked in.
Costs are ~12m USD for one launch.
Simple.
What should be concerning is that KPMG said that the Company will be bankrupt in 12 months time if they don't raise additional capital. So you can sleep safely knowing that another CR will be coming sometime this year. I mean they have 48million in just contractual commitments due by December 2019, not including operating expenditure, wages etc. Even
IF (
BIG IF) they generate 10m revenue from the first batch, that won't be enough to fund the shortfall.
You can play guessing games with what other launch providers they can use - but the cold hard fact is, they have only one binding agreement at this stage which is with Virgin, the launch cost we know is roughly 12m USD (you can call the Company to confirm).
I think the Company needs to release more detail of that 48million amount due before 31/12/2019 so that everyone knows with full transparency what the company has to pay this year.
