fat prophets viewpoint

Below is an extract of today's FP newsletter... As you would expect after a day like today it is all green light... It is a good summary of what said in this thread.
I particular like the comments on the Tibotec partnership - and the combination of this partnership with positive feedback from regulators favouring a faster track to approval should make for a nice and solid turnaround.

---------------------------------
Management announced earlier this week that the all-important apricitabine

(ATC) Phase III study will close for an evaluation of the 24-week data. Expectations are for the results to become available in the first quarter of 2010.

The company had originally planned to run the trial through 2011, based on earlier discussion with regulators. Regulators now appear to be favouring a faster track to approval, which is a major factor behind management’s decision to shorten the trial.

The 24-week data should also prove sufficient for third parties to determine whether they wish to partner Avexa in the vaccine’s commercialisation. Given that commercialisation is the ultimate goal for ATC’s development, any strategy that may more quickly facilitate this is in our view a positive move.

Further to this, a shorter trial period also reduces the product’s development cost and reduces the likelihood that Avexa will need to return to the market for additional capital. In terms of which, the company held cash of $18.8 million as at 30 June 2009. Management at the time described this as sufficient for 12 months of operations.

ATC is the most advanced of Avexa’s projects and the most relevant to our investment thesis. As shown in the chart above though, the company has various other growth avenues in the pipeline.

The lucrative HIV market is also the focus of Avexa’s HIV Integrase project. Management announced a potential partnership with Tibotec Pharmaceuticals in May 2009. Both companies at that time entered a six-month exclusivity period. Given that this is set to expire in November, the companies may confirm a partnership in the next few weeks. This would likely prove a positive catalyst for Avexa’s share price, given the wealth of knowledge and experience Tibotec has in the HIV field.

We continue to view Avexa as an attractive investment opportunity for those members comfortable with a considerably higher degree of risk. As such, we recommend Avexa as a buy to all Members around $0.16.