fate of fortescue, page-12

Hi Geddo, you are right in what you say in your post. China is an enormous market and domestic consumption is growing strongly.

I travel to China 1 or 2 times a year and I have seem some unbelievable changes. But one thing that I've noticed this year is a bit of negative sentiment with Chinese people. There is a strong concensus that their economy will slow down after the Olympics. I've also noticed for the first time in cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zuhai there are new apartments blocks that cannot be sold. The housing bubble in these cities (and I'm sure others) is coming to an end. Construction is a bigger user of steel than consumer goods.

I have liked FMG for a while and believe they are now in a strong position, but we have to be careful about the end of the cycle. It could hit us when we least expect it.

I think that smaller, high cost producers will be hard hit when the tide turns.