Heres for hoping FP2 pulls the proverbial rabbit out of the hat!
Remember they were getting gas kicks of 6000 units on the way down before they hit the "mother load" at the bottom and they are re-drilling the same targets so all things fair they should encounter the same kicks.
Thats 3 times more than what BCC have just experienced and thats caused quite the stir at that camp.
Even though your WI is 18% if all the hype actually pays off theres no reason that like VIL, GGP's SP should hit the 3.5c-4.5c levels at least as this is where they were at during the drilling of FP1. Since then both companies have diversified quite a lot and so there is less risk on this one well.
So as far as plays go its no doubt less guaranteed than PB however if it comes off it would certainly raise your SP a lot more then the estimated return of a single PB well (or several for that matter). Would be great if a third party company gave their reserve estimates and success rate as i reckon it would be quite high.
I guess this didnt make an impact on SP as its already 6 pips higher than VIL's who hold a much larger WI. I think the anticipation from FP2 will start to make a difference once they spud which may not be for another 1-3 months.
Also a lot of people got burnt on FP1 18 months ago. I think some fingers are a bit more wary to hit buy until its flowing this time.
All IMO of course.
Note: I hold VIL.
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