Horses for courses mate. I quit my day job two years and only invest now, although likewise the biggest lesson I've found is regardless of any fundamentals or technicals in the short term (< few years), the market can overreact, or the powers that be can manipulate things. So risk mgmt, ie scaling in and out and portfolio mgmt is critical. This is why the blind freddie's chuck tantys and make things up when the SP isn't going their way.
Given the type of product FBR has, you're right about the partnership. This isn't a software roll out that can scale exponentially in a short time. This will be capital and labour intensive, albeit on an easier scale for WaaS, so well established names will definitely help execution, let alone investor confidence.
Agreed on the market size, I never understand the vehement naysayers focusing on the challenges like they are deal breakers for the success of the company. I'm with you on the WAAS model also. As the announcements stated, it's far less complex for them to scale. The partnerships formed are giving them access to ridiculous customer bases and industry knowledge. While this is the fastest route to commercialisation now... I believe as the technology gains acceptance, larger customers will look at business cases for other operating models, including outright ownership.
Absolutely agree with every point there. Technical risks all but gone. Cashflow issues will be critical. I'm extremely impressed with Aiden Flynn as a CFO. After securing multiple rounds of funding at increasing prices, I must admin I was a bit peeved at the last round that saw the $17m at 10.5 cents. Although on seeing that FIL (Fidelity) were accumulating, I understand why.
The reality is more CRs will be needed, likely even after revenue starts, as larger expansions are undertaken. The conservative approach to increase future chances of successful raises is not to squeeze every last cent out of investors. This is why discounts on CRs are so common. As frustrating as it is for non participants, there is method to the madness. Hopefully future raises come with SPPs giving discount rights for existing retail holders also. Ultimately the priority is ensuring the continued viability of the business, and a little extra dilution along the way shouldn't stress people out.
At the risk of getting too fanatical, FBR is going to be a monster. The biggest challenge will be tolerating a slow burn.
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