FBR General Discussion, page-5049

Unfortunately yes and no
For a long time I have cashed in too early on these types of tech companies rather than letting my profits run.
I have bought and sold each of these names over the many years but I would have been far far far better off having just bought them and never touched them.
My largest loss over the many years has come from my very concentrated bets in FBR.
I'm sure this is the case for many of the regular FBR posters on this thread.
I see most of the value in FBR coming from it's inherent optionality.
Small company, large market with a strong competitive advantage.
The Total Addressable Market TAM is so large and FBR have created such a unique one of a kind product that even liquidation value should provide a good back-stop in the event of a total failure.

I am still evolving as an investor and recently I have changed my perspective on investing somewhat. I now look exclusively at companies that have competitive advantages and in most cases disruption potential. Valuation for me has become a bit of an afterthought on the premise that winning companies tend to keep on winning.
The problem in trying to value tech and early start up companies is that in most cases they are holding back on accounting earnings in order to invest for the future. This makes valuations extremely hard unless you have good forecasting capabilities and foresight.

Tesla is another one of these companies that appear to be optically expensive based on all valuation metrics but when you consider the disruption potential and TAM of their autonomous robotaxis and Optimus project, the risk/reward seems overwhelmingly positive to me. Clearly the very high valuation assigned to Tesla is optionality value based on these projects.

In any case, I will keep plotting along doing the best I can based on the information I have. This is not investment advice. Do your own research, etc etc.