These are my financial expectations/assumptions per machine based on the summaries FBR have provided in the past as shown below.
Note these are assumptions. Actuals will differ from assumptions. Not investment advice. Do your own research and make your own assumptions, etc etc.
Approx Revenue = $3,737,778 USD per machine (at 70% utilisation, allowing for 30% down-time)
Approx Direct Costs % of Rev = 43.7% (based on FBR % expectations below, i.e. % = 3.1 / 7.1 = 43.7%)
Approx Indirect Costs % of Rev = 7% (based on FBR % expectations below, i.e. % = 0.5 / 7.1 = 7%)
Approx Depreciation Costs % of Rev = 8.3% (Based on a 12 year machine useful life)
Operating profit per machine after Direct, Indirect and Depreciation costs = $1,531,085 USD
FBR share of WAAS profit = $1,531,085 USD / 2 = $780,853 USD.
So I am hoping that each HX unit will bring in $780K per machine per year in FBR/CRH JV WAAS Profit for FBR.
For some fun with numbers, assume that 30 units are on the ground.
30 units should bring in around 30 x 780K USD = $23m USD per year.
If you assume a 15 x multiple on earnings per machine.
Your market cap could be around $351m USD, with 30 units working at 70% utilisation.
This could translates to approx. $538m AUD Market Cap, which is call it 3 x multiple on today's market cap.
Note: this excludes FBR HQ R&D Spend and just looks at the value of FBRs 51% share in FBR/CRH JV WAAS entity.
Now, of course, I expect more than 30 units to be deployed in the longer time but this is just my back of the envelop math to try quantify my expectations.
AGAIN BIG WARNING. DO NOT RELY ON MY MATH. I WILL INEVITABLE BE WRONG AS MY ASSUMPTIONS WILL INEVITABLE BE WRONG.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS ALSO RELIES ON FBRs ASSUMPTIONS WHICH COULD ALSO BE WRONG.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN MATH AND MAKE YOUR OWN ASSUMPTIONS, ETC ETC......
