FBR General Discussion, page-6872

@Giobria thanks for the summary of events and pricing history. I agree it is very surprising, however maybe we are all too close to the business and its technology..

The announcement of the JV agreement not moving the needle on the pricing really surprised me as this was the first "non MOU" agreement with a real path to commercialisation. Whilst there were (and still are) risks on this path, it was THE major step from concept to commercialisation. Very surprised it did not sit say closer to 5c following this announcement.

It took the actual Hadrian arrival in US for the pricing move into the 4-6c range. Again interesting as this is not a "de risking" step to commercialisation, as this was always going to happen. If it was going to have an impact, when the new Hadrian X had left Australia would have been a more logical trigger for this price movement. As this was the signal FBR had stopped tinkering and effectively announcing it was happy with Hadrian X for commercialisation.

Suspect there will be limited movement with the other de risking milestones up to the final JV step.

Will be interesting to see the share pricing movement if JV gets announced. Whilst we should expect a large price movement, for many investors they might hang back. FBR is still a small, unprofitable foreign company. investors wanting to see the momentum of actual income, more Hadrian X's in the field and Hadrian X's operationally proven in the field under normal operating conditions. As LTSH's we are already convinced.

Think @BENZI is spot on. At the moment there is only a small pool of investors interested in FBR. The various triggers for LTSH's that we see as major steps do not reflect in pricing changes. However , there is not enough other interested new shareholders (or LTSH's wanting to build much larger positions) to drive pricing demand. May well see the pricing creep up outside the key announcements, as Hadrian X marketing spreads the word to the investment world and they slowly see the future benefit.

Regardless, looking several years down the track the future is most likely very bright for LTSH's, assuming JV signed. However the price rises may well happen at unexpected times along this path as major investors buy in, not at the key announcements.