FBR 8.11% 3.4¢ fbr ltd

So I thought I'd create a thread on the tangibles and...

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    So I thought I'd create a thread on the tangibles and intangibles of FBR in 2019 based on my own research, Spade_of_Aces input on routing/chasing, klensing's input on reverse engineering tech as well as input from Adent and Sean this morning.

    The tangibles:
    1. We know that achieving performance share milestones is Senior Managements No.1 priority.

    2. We know that first 'revenue' will be achieved through the completion of the Class B Performance Shares: "166,666,666 Performance shares upon successful completion, being payment for service, of the Company's tenth home structure constructed under a commercial arm's length contract. If unconverted, Class B shares will expire after 48 Months (4 Years from November 13th 2015) ."

    3. With the Corporate Presentation of December 2018, we know that: "Pilot program in Europe planned to trial Hadrian X in European conditions building European designs with WaaS business model."

    4. We know that to achieve the Class C Performance Shares - 166,666,666 Performance Shares upon achievement by the Company of reported annual revenue in a financial year from operations (excluding grant receipts and other incomes) of at least $10,000,000. If unconverted, Class C Performance Shares will expire after 60 months (5 years from November 13th 2015) = 19/20 FY is the realistic cutoff.

    5. We know that FBR achieved the Outdoor Build behind schedule; Q4 2018 turned into 11/02/2019.
    Sean also stated that "Build 1 was actually well over a year late. September 2017 was the original schedule stated in a video".

    6. "Each Hadrian X unit can build a standard sized home every 2 days on average. In the right environment and working continuously, each unit could build between 100 and 300 homes per year." As a conservative estimate, lets put it at 100 homes.

    7. We know the Bricks/Blocks that the Hadrian X can lay:
    Hadrian X is designed to work with the Fastbrick Wall System, which uses blocks that have been specially designed for optimal performance.
    Hadrian X can also lay standard bricks made of concrete or clay within these parameters:
    Length: 115mm to 490mm
    Width: 60mm to 250mm
    Height: 60mm to 250mm
    Maximum weight: 22kg

    8. We know the type of bonding agent that the Hadrian X utilises:
    The Fastbrick Wall System uses special industrial adhesive instead of mortar. This adhesive bonds in just 45 minutes, holds stronger and results in greater thermal and acoustic properties than traditional mortar.

    9. We know what building sites the Hadrian X can work on; Hadrian X has been designed with the smallest possible worksite footprint while maintaining a 30m reach for long narrow lots and multi-unit development sites. This opens up possibilities for tract or subdivision work as well as residential in-fill and commercial sites.

    10. We know that FBR have comprehensive patents for the Hadrian X and DST technology: FBR's technology is comprehensively patent protected in the USA, China, Australia, Canada, UK, and many countries within the EU.
    Note of 10. by Klensing:
    Here is my thought process, the controls inside the machine are using a reference signal from a nearby station to make correction to the systems position, everyone know this. But if you were to give Hadrian X to another company not only would other companies be able to replicate this, but they could eventually do it better. Companies like CAT have 100s of Mark Pivacs with expertise in all areas. If China got a hold of it, it would be even worse. Once they reversed engineer the system they could start replicating the software/controls and it would be only a matter of time. Every larger equipment manufacturer buy each others equipment and tears them down for studies. Its controls, hydraulics, motors, actuators and instrumentation. They do these things ALL THE TIME! They find out how things are done, then they investigate if it is patented and finally design something that closely approach crossing the line, but never cross it. Sometimes these situation go to court and they get tie up in the technical details, maybe settle if they slip up. It just the cost of doing business and that is what lawyers are for.

    Note: The ASX Announcement from the 14/11/2018 - "First full home structure built with the Hadrian X", they state: "This event constitutes the achievement of "A milestone". The Performance condition attached to 166,666,666 Class A Performance Shares issued as part of the deferred consideration for the acquisition of Fastbrick Robotics under the Prospectus and approved by shareholders on 6th of October, 2015."

    https://www.fbr.com.au/view/faqs

    Intangibles:
    1. We do not currently know how much revenue FBR will receive from the 10 home structures under a commercial arm's length contract, now utilizing the WaaS model.

    2. We do not know what the pilot program in Europe with Weinerberger AG will actually consist of, besides the implication that the WaaS model will be used = revenue for FBR under the same pretense as intangible 1 & 4.

    3. We do not currently know if FBR is planning on utilising the Hadrian X before October 2020 to assist in meeting the KSA MOU guidelines:
    • Fastbrick signs MOU in relation to a potential project for Saudi Arabia to utilise Hadrian Xconstruction robots to build a minimum of 50,000 new homes by 2022
    • The MOU indicates an equivalent requirement for 100 Hadrian X robots to facilitate this project

    4. We do not know how the WaaS model will split revenue between FBR & the Block manufacturer.

    5. Whether or not the Hadrian X routes the block for the other trades.
    Spade of Aces:
    Some reasons why i believe Chasing has moved down the priority list:
    1. Laying speed has been prioritised over chasing
    2. Diamond blade costs are high and their current chasing method method may only allows for a 100% cut channel with no chipping which leads to quicker blade fatigue
    3. Alternate options in brick design that services to go down the wall
    4. The need to get HX working & generating revenue
    5. Chasing can still be rolled out in the next tried & proven model

    There are 2 approved methods of chasing electrical cables into walls in Western Australia:

    a) Premium Method: Chase a chanel (diameter of conduit), install pvc conduit, wedge the conduit into the channel with wood, plastic or hardiflex, partially mud the conduit in with a high concret mixed mud, then render & white set over the top

    b) Cheap method (Run of the mill home on an internal wall installation where a cavity is not available): Cut 1 blade width (4mm) incision into the wall from corners down to outlet, push TPS (flat 2C+E) cable into the incision, render over & white set (ever since my apprenticeship days, its always seemed so dodgy, so i have never practiced this, but its stsndard practice).

    a) is superior to b) because it is accessible in the future and specifically handy on light switches when you might want to add another switch on an internal singleleaf wall i.e a fan or an IXL heat lamp and fan etc. But these days a lot of homes are using smart wiring which uses IP addressing over power cables which runs on a different frequency to the general 50hz that electricity is provided. So adding switches can just be paralelled into the main circuit - (Practices have likely changed dramatically over the 10-15 yrs ive moved away from this work)
    For method a) As a sparky we would cut 2 chase lines, slightly larger than the diameter of the conduit and use a cold chisel to chip the center part out, 'a bitch of a job' as the brick does not chip out square so lots of extra chiseling to route a clean chanel to slot the conduit into so the conduit is not exposed beyond the brick surface and sits flush or recessed.
    The HX most likely would not have a chisel, or jack hammer to break the channel so it may need to make 3-5 or so cuts to break down the brick enough to easily break a 20-25mm chanel with a mechanically designed tooth that could be hydraulically dragged through the channel (water jet cutting is also an option but messy and cant be vacummed easily) . Every extra cut will multiply the burn rate of diamond blades (especially if its not a wet saw & does not get a break between cuts).
    The other option is to use bricks with a hollow (cylinder block) style design, which FBR have used in the demonstrations. This would relief the absence of a chase or a cavity so long as the render and paint can be passed as sufficient water ingress protection under building codes - although its not conventional in todays practices, i dont see this as being an issue if the bricks and render practices are tested & regulated accordingly.
    Using the blocks seen in the demonstration would actually be easier than the after works required for a pre-chased wall & even installing cables & pipe into a premade cavity wall with mud as there wont be any mud dregs spilt into the cavity, meaning a clean void straight to the outlet. A simple spade drill hole will get you through the timer frame into the hollow block. A drop chain and magnet would be the preferred method of pulling cables in as a fiberlass tongue (flat snake) would likely get caught on the sharp edges or gaps in the brick.
    Long story short, if FBR can use cylinder style blocks with Pilthoriem thermal technology & maintain water ingress issues."

    Sorry for the novel everyone!
    I'm interested in hearing everyone's tangibles/intangibles, thoughts, queries and/or concerns!
 
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