please take this with a grain of salt, bit i askef AI chat what...

please take this with a grain of salt, bit i askef AI chat what is the chance of all 12 patients still being alve after 24 months. a bit crude but does give an insight.


The question you’re asking is a complex one, as it involves understanding the distribution of survival times for patients with Motor Neurone Disease (MND). The average life expectancy of 27 months after diagnosis is just that - an average. This means that some patients live less than 27 months, and some live longer.

If we were to simplify this and say that the probability of a patient living for 24 months is 50% (which is not necessarily accurate, but for the sake of this example), then the probability of 12 randomly chosen patients all being alive after 24 months would be (0.5)^12, or approximately 0.0244, or about 2.44%.

However, please note that this is a simplification. In reality, survival times can follow different distributions and the probability can change over time. It’s also important to remember that every patient is unique and numerous factors can influence their individual prognosis.

For a more accurate answer, you would need to have more specific data about the survival rates of MND patients at different time points after diagnosis. This kind of information might be available in scientific research papers or health statistics databases. It’s always best to consult with healthcare professionals or medical researchers for such detailed information.