FDA tightens regulation of sunscreen products, page-7

That possibility always exists in theory but there is a reason companies that gain technological leadership in any given area tend to maintain that for long periods of time. IP is one source of a competitive moat that cannot be simply eroded with more R&D spend. See A2M vs Nestle or AMD vs. Intel. I would assume that the major sunscreen brands are outsourcing their supply to chemical manufacturers, who likely have no foundation for developing zinc oxide compounds. Their solution to the problem will have to be to find additional uses for their chemicals, new chemicals, or lobbying the FDA to add their chemicals back to the approved list. In terms of competition in the mineral space, it appears that ANO is firmly in the lead in terms of quality and cost, despite the competition having much deeper pockets. My sense is that the hit to margins for major brands could be easily absorbed given the relatively low cost of active ingredients compared to retail prices. Their main concern is probably stability of supply at very high volumes.