fdl trade data observations

The last week has been an interesting one for Flinders.
For those flinders followers who might be interested, here are my observations of the trading data.
I have been spending the bulk of my time on the GDA threads as many of you know but I have regularly been checking the data and volumes and buy/sells for flinders.

The buy/sell volumes have been drawing closer for a couple of days and the drop in closing price has been from 15c on the 8th to 14.5c, to 13c and yesterday closed at 12.5.
Interestingly the highs have been consistently around 15c for each of those days except yesterday when it was 13.5.
Buy / sell is even at 81m/82m vol totals and is confirmed in the even balance in the top 5 price levels being 27m/27m
I suspect the build-up in sellers is as a result of lots of investors who bought and became concerned about the apparent drop in closing price and listed their shares for sale therefore the sell vols have increased. The buys have dropped away as well from being consistently up around the 115m total vols. The volumes are still high and still significant in historic terms and flinders and fdloa are top 10 asx volume on a regular basis.
The 2nd was the biggest day for fdl when 2443 trades occurred for 197m shares turnover at vwap of 14.8c, a highest close of 16c and a high of 16.5c ( and also on the following day)
That vwap has not been exceeded.
Volume has not been below 20m since the 12 dec.
Something that stands out is the large number of buyers and sellers in each price level.
Not that I profess to have much chart technical analysis skills but the general trends I see going forward are that unless there is a reduction of sellers and an increase in buyers, the price will drift down to 12c or 11c lows and possibly lower on the buy sell ratios with no news expected until the quarterly report at the end of the month.
Maybe between 11.5c and 14c on Monday and 10.5 and 13 on Tuesday and increasing in line with the average December increases line to a closing price at the end of this coming week around the 14c level.
The daily spread between highs and lows has turned flinders into a very very good day trading stock and that’s probably the reason for the high turnovers, the big spreads between lows and high each day, eg,
the 28th dec there was a large 3.4c spread,
31st 2.5c,
2nd jan a whopping 4 c ( 12.5c to 16.5c),
3rd jan 3c,
4th 2.5c,
7th 1.5c,
8th 2.5c,
9th 1c,
10th 3c and yesterday it was 2c. These present massive opportunities for traders because of the high volumes. So whilst those that have bought and sold on concern over the price drops in the last few days just once, have probably lost money, many traders have been doing very well out of the fluctuations. The good thing is that fdl is a very liquid stock. Many traders will be securing larger holdings around buy ins at these lower price levels and this is a good thing as it holds fdl shares outside the trading market and is good for the long term buy sell ratios. For those who have bought and are holding for the news of the drilling and testing program and the confirmation of the quantities of Iron-ore, the price reductions don’t matter, it’s only a paper reduction. The announcements will see renewed price growth. The extent of which will be determined by the news and the way it is presented. If investors can afford to, buying and holding fdl might have some short term on paper pain but long term gain.
It might be worth reflecting on the trading data not that long ago, on the 19th of November 2007, the vwap was 1c, 1.3m shares turned over with a value of $13,319, there were 7 trades on the day with a low of 1c, a high of 1.1c and a close of 1c.
Even on the record volume on the 22nd Nov when 1.9 billion shares in fdl turned over, the high was 9.4c and it closed at 8.9c.
FDLOA has been even more volatile over the last week with many very good day trade opportunities. Volumes in the buy and sell price levels has dropped off noticeably which sees large jumps in price both up and down when someone wants to trade say a million parcel order.
The best thing for investors new to flinders is to read the broker presentations and the quarterly reports. They have enough in them to see me as a long term holder of shares in Flinders. As usual, don’t make any decisions based on what I say, do your own research and consider your personal risk/ return profile. It might be worth your time of you are new to the stock market to read some of my previous posts on both fdl and GDA by clicking on the “fatstocks” user name and then on “more” to see my last 100 posts. By clicking on the “subject” heading rather than the “threads” it will save scrolling time.
Cheers Fatstocks