So I had a look at the covid world charts last night. As of that time the average death rate across the world is 94.3 per million.
So 0.00943% of the population have died of covid. Looking at the number of cases per million, we can see that there are 2,574.7 known cases per million. So, making the assumption that every single case has been recorded (a big assumption) that suggests a 3.66% death rate in all known cases. If every existing serious case ends badly that figure would push out to 4% of all known cases ending in death.
Looking at New York, we can see that under 65 year olds account for 27% of the deaths and under 45 year olds account for 4% of deaths. This is quite a high reading compared to other parts of the world for these age groups, but I'll use it as a worst case in my figures.
So, if we assume 27% of deaths are under 65 and 4% deaths are under 45, I'd suggest these figures support the notion that
1% of known cases will end in the death of someone under 65.
Similar number crunching indicates that
0.16% of known cases will end in the death of someone under 45.
Now, bear in mind, I am assuming there is no significant number of people quietly dealing with this virus and therefore not getting tested. Also, I am also using New York for the breakdown of cases by age, and there is an unusually high percentage in the younger range. I have even ignored the fact that the vast majority of deaths have underlying conditions recorded with covid-19. Finally I have made no mention of the political machinations which is encouraging covid-19 to be marked down as the cause of death in the very marginal cases.
If you still think this is a pandemic worthy of closing down our lives, dramatically damaging our childrens' prospects, and increasing social isolation and depression, then I suggest that you ask yourself if you would have thought an overall death rate of 0.0094% of the world population (0.0025% under 65 and 0.0004% under 45) would have been included in your definition of a pandemic 12 months ago. Is the death of 4 people under 45 per 1,000,000 population a pandemic in your mind? Surely focusing our energy on the well being of the aged 65+ would be a better strategy than destroying the lives of healthy young adults.
These figures are way below the annual figures for suicide (which will surely be rising), tuberculosis and a raft of other causes of death.
