First comment---re your post before getting to the Main Point---- is this:
Watch now, imo, for the likes of the:---- Value Searcher style of funds to take and get their positions.....
ie: The Contango's, the Lion Selections,the Hunter Halls, the Thorney Holdings, Premier Investments, etc..... and the Investeque's the Mineral Securities,the Crosby Partners....and.... the Linq Resources Funds...the Heemskirk's..... etc etc etc...as they begin, on my assesment to ..... Now....start to:---
Either enter the GXY share Register..for the First Time--- ...or .... like Contango....and three others currently on the GXY share register..... increase their current level of holdings....
Your main question jqb .... is ...imo....a very good one and .....echoes the fundamental ... perennial cause of discussion and disagreement---- on what is the Value of Something....???....
ie: .... I say the "sweet bannana"--- is worth $1.20--- you say the "sweet bannana"--- is really worth $1.75.....
Or ...at....another end of the Scale--witness the "argy bargy"--- re "fair value"--- between RIo and BHP....
ie: "what's it --is (RIO) worth"....for BHP to need to pay to take over and own Rio Tinto .....
Put five "experts"--- in the roon---and get 5 different answers---which is.... I guess.... why we have.... "markets" and "price mechanisms" ..... as such!!...
So--- Re:.... What is the GXY Lithium/Tantalum--- mine worth..???-- ....or...what.... is.... reasonable and fair value--...???--- as it is so often; in the Financial Press---- sometimes-- phrased as.... ???...
And so that is precisely why the final Bankeable Feasiblity stage is termed a -- "Bankeable" study....--- ie: Financeable ==== Feasibility Study....ie: what's it (Mount Cattlin Lithium/Tantalum--- Project)-- worth to a Commercial Large Bank-- as a "Mortage"--as a good Risk/Reward Equation.... as a Security agaisnt Capital---- or as collateral againnt....as a basis upon ....which to finance ....$ 40 M..?? .
What is anything worth in mining....? ...hmmmm...?? ..
A trite but still true answer, is that it is--- worth..... what someone .....will pay ...is the "cute" answer I guess....it is in the "eye of the beholder"....
..... And of course, what's it "worth"--- for a bank to put forward ---and risk--- $40 Millions of their money ...???--...is one.... rather interesting ---- Litmus test ----style of question as well.....
_.....My own view.... is that--- the fair market cap NOW for GXY ought to be around the $120 Millions Market Cap mark.... about... right now.....
And post the Bankeable Feasiblity Study date--(ie: about June 2008)---increae this figure to at least about $195 --- $225 Millions.--- imo--- ... Pending of course; what the Bankeable Feasbility Study actually assesses, says in detail---- and concludes..... and combined with OTHER drilling from the Manganese and Iron Ore Projects-- and the achievable Real likiely Secular Market price of:
(1) Litium and (2) Tantalum --as Industrial Commodities--- at Market Rates--- going forwards.....and other extraneous developments from Jan to June 2008---- on the Other Two GXY excellent projects--namely the (1) Manganese and (2) Iron Ore....Mining Projects.
..... But on a sort of.... "stand alone basis"---- --- the Lithium/Tantalum Mt Cattlin Project--in tandem with the Risk/Reward Profitle ....as of Today....combined with the other GXY mining Projects......and ....imo.....discounted for conservative risk---- for the sake of broad ball-park--- .... imo---means a view by me on fair value for GXY---- as to be "worth"-- imo--- about $110-125 millions market cap....right now....ie: presently.
That translates....imo..... to a "fair"-- GXY share price..... about thrice-- the current price: ie: ...times three ( x 3 ).... from that quoted on the ASX ---for GXY....bourse today.
The Bottom Line-???--- -imo GXY is very under-valued right now. ....at these Prices....
