The shareprice is at a point now where MFG could lose half its FUM and still be reasonably priced. That is, it wouldn’t be sitting on a PE of 15-16.
Claims of MFGs death have been greatly exaggerated. Many fundies have been through terrible underperformance and outflows - BT, Perpetual come to mind.
Eventually market conditions again favour the investment style or new portfolio managers bring their ideas and they turn it around, investors buy into the story (and the returns) and suddenly things look great again.
ETFs will always be an option for investors and have been huge since 15-20 years ago but the more “dumb” money that index funds take in, the greater the opportunity for stock pickers.
anyway, the thread asked about views on the Feb divvy so that’s just what I gave. You raise a good point about future earnings and I guess my view is that I don’t see a fall in FUM greater than 50% so I see some value right now. Maybe not a buy just yet but certainly a hold.
on another note, be interesting to see how the short positions play out when the divvy is paid.
MFG Price at posting:
$18.41 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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