re: re hardmano mycrosoft blackscorpion 61pt8 etc Ellroy,
Good to get someone elses detailed take on the AGM. I also read 2x 30 mmbo more or less in the bag. With 50% to HDR at say A$8/bbl NPV, we are looking at 33 cps post placement, or close to 20% of current sp.
I struggle not to see this double over the next year (Mputa 2 plus 3 other wells), to one third of current value. Clearly anyone who says other than that Uganda is a key driver of medium term sp for HDR is an imbecilic idi*ot.
The shift in exploration spend from 68% Mauritania (USD 16mm elsewhere) to 55 to 60 mm USD elsewhere in 2007 is as good a leading indicator of the value creation shift as anything IMO.
Tanzania, Uganda, Suriname combined. It would suprise me if the value of these did not eclipse current Mauritanian discoveries in 2 to 3 years.
In particular, what would a success in Tanzania or Guyane do to HDR, "Trifecta play maker?" I"d say that would warrant a sp mpremium, vs current heavy discount for soveriegn risk and Chinq problems.
In 2 to 3 years SP will have HDR asset profile as diverse as that of ROC. I am determined to exercise patience. I can"t think of an ASX coy with better exploration acreage on such good fiscal terms (Guyane, Mauritania, Falklands). The exploration program also compares well with the likes of ROC (which I also hold). Acreage additions are impressive (esp Tanzania), Simon clearly has a game plan and ambition.
An important point from the AGM IMO. Simon made specific note to Banda, suggesting (my words) only idi*ots couldn"t extract value from the 344 mmbo, OOIP.
As for Billygates, I am not particularly interested in pay increases. Give me value increases, and I will ignore trivial cost increases (or well deserved remuneration to the value creators). Yours, misersook, pennypincher, so long as it"s not going to Burns.
I"ll probably break all the investment rules and buy more HDR once the market (and my ML slack) stabilises. Looks a compelling growth story to me.
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