LNG (ASX) FERC NTP &amp; DOE NFTA

Originally posted by Dozen ↑

Now the Sierra Club appeal has been seen off, and there are no other appeals afoot, a key question is how long will FERC NTP & DOE NFTA take?

Some here think a matter of only two weeks, which I regard as rather optimistic and the shortest possible timing given we are talking about bureaucracy and that COE need to complete their report.

One clue on timing might be GV's comments at the Aussie presentations the week of 25 July. He was convinced both approvals would occur by the end of the quarter, that is the end of September i.e. ~2 months from then, given that he thought the Sierra Club appeal would have been despatched well before then.

2 Months, then hopefully is the longest probable timing - i.e. the end of January 2017.

One should hope therefore that the rising LNG price trend, which started on 7 November, will continue till then at least.

Another bullish factor could be an increasing gap between international oil prices and HH gas prices. Assuming OPEC manage to constrain supply somewhat and the set point for oil prices rises somewhat, then I think Nth American shale oil production will rise steadily again and the associated gas production will also rise, keeping HH gas prices down which would be good for future BTA customers.

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From my AGM soundings, hopefully the COE 404/10 permit has been issued. LNG was assured this would be done by Thanksgiving. The next Monthly Status Report will confirm issuance (or not) by EOW. The delay was due to unforeseen circumstances and is not an issue.

As for FERC, this is where having PM's experience is invaluable.

Not only did LNG's Attorney write to the 3 FERC commissioners (2 weeks ago now), but other key folks within FERC precisely so this 'friendly request' (paraphrasing what PM indicated wouldn't be taken as a negative) for NTP to be actioned and linger no more. You will note FERC has yet to respond. When they do, it won't be a mere acknowledgement.

Whether the Rehearing Request (from Sierra) was rejected as an immediate response to this reminder is unclear. However, FERC's Notice of Denial 8 days after the 'friendly request' suggests it was already documented and went through FERC's internal approval/ sign off process before being formally rejected and shared publicly.

That suggests FERC's NTP has similarly been drafted (remember MLNG now has the dubious distinction of surpassing Trunkline from FEIS to NTP i.e. >7 months) and is good to go.

Similarly I understand DOE NTP is a done deal and pending NTP (and IMO that too has been drafted).

I therefore remain of the view both are imminent.

Go LNG!