In November, International Fertiliser Association released a...

In November, International Fertiliser Association released a summary report on fert demand supply and trade.

http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/Home-Page/FERTILIZERS-THE-INDUSTRY/Market-outlooks.html

Like many commentators, they are upbeat on grains. They highlight that 2 consecutive record harvests have produced only very small increases in stock-to-use ratios which are clost to record lows.

They suggest the fundamentals of fert market are strong and hint at future volatility.

"The potential for a sharp upswing in fertilizer demand, and the likelihood of a recurrent tightness in short-term fertilizer supply, are underlying aspects that have been overshadowed by the current financial and economic crisis."

Phos production capacity increases small in 2008 & 2009 with many projects delayed.

They're predicting a small increase in phos. acid demand in 2009 back to 2007 levels. But still expect a surplus in 2009 of 4.6Mt (similar to 2008, bigger than 0.8Mt in 2007).

My take is...
2009 will be tough, 2010 MUCH better, may be back 2007 conditions of tight demand/supply balance.