Fertiliser stocks to shine THERE'S a great commodities story...

Fertiliser stocks to shine

THERE'S a great commodities story which is going to make some people a lot of money -- but not many Australian investors, alas.

If you look at commodity price moves since early 2009, the big performer has been the precious metals complex -- gold, of course, but with a big push in 2010 from palladium. Industrial metals come a distant third, notwithstanding their present strength, with energy last in the race.

The second place went to agriculture. And there's the frustration. The growing crises of inadequate food supplies and rising prices are now dominating commodities news, but how to get onboard?

Investors here have plenty of choices for riding gold, base metals, iron ore, uranium, oil and gas, rare earths -- you name it. But when it comes to agriculture, there's a smattering of companies only. PrimeAg (PAG) saw what it called a silver lining in the recent Queensland and NSW floods. While it has experienced some crop damage, the company is expecting a bumper fiscal 2012 now that its soil moisture and water storage levels are very high, helped by the soaring prices for cotton.

There are a few others but, for agriculture, the main proxy here have been the fertiliser (potash and phosphate) stocks.

Now we have the issue of Morocco, and it seems this was one of the reasons behind the sudden 62.5 per cent gain on Friday by Phosphate Australia (POZ). We believe no announcement is imminent, and that includes the search for a financing partner, so there's a bit of head-scratching here.

The only other apparent explanation is Morocco and the worry that it will eventually become entangled in the North African unrest. The country is the world's dominant producer of seaborne phosphate rock so any disruption to output would be disastrous for world agriculture.

It has to be said opinions vary on Morocco. While it has factors similar to Tunisia and Egypt -- 40 per cent unemployment and half the population under 25 -- some experts argue the monarchy is far more widely accepted and less resented than the governments in Tunisia and Egypt.

But the stories that circulated during the week talked of international food security being compromised by even a temporary disruption of Moroccan phosphate, and these seemed to stir local investors. Minemakers (MAK) also saw a small gain in its share price.

Phosphate Australia's plan is to develop its Highland Plains deposit in the Northern Territory and move the phosphate by slurry pipeline to the Gulf of Carpentaria for export. It is coming up to a year since the company embarked on its search for a partner to bring capital to the table. Apparently the attitude at POZ is that Highland Plains won't be given away cheaply. Until a deal is done, we don't have a production date. By then, presumably, any disruption in Morocco will be long over.

And, really, the POZ performance has been lacklustre. From 26c a year ago, the stock slumped to 9.5c and, even with Friday's frenzy, it still has not managed to get back to 20c.

And the rest of the world is not standing still. Syria, which increased its phosphate output by 46 per cent last year, is now seeking investors to built fertiliser plants. Yes, phosphate is going to be a continuing story. The latest commodity report from the World Bank shows an increase in the rock phosphate price from $US140 a tonne to $US155/tonne in the past month.

Yes, it and potash will be in ever-growing demand, which is why we saw BHP Billiton (BHP) decide this week to do a feasibility study on its potash project in Canada.

But you have to be in production for the high prices to mean anything.

By the way, in a Melbourne-based publication, Diggers and Drillers, Alex Cowie says that most investors have never even heard of potash. He's clearly not a Pure Speculation reader; we've been banging on about it for years.

http://m.theaustralian.com.au/OpinionNews/pg/0/fi286162.htm