We have a potentially fully or overvalued stockmarket facing an environment of rising interest rates which is bearish overall for the general market although it's arguable if enough of that has already been priced in - and a fertiliser stock that is offering compelling value in an environment for fertiliser that couldn't be more bullish for a company with its own phosphate supply and stable green electricity prices that make the company effectively inflation proof for the major input costs for both projects.
In this environment you need to pick your stocks. MNB looks like a great long, medium and short term buy again while the market is still very weak. I'm expecting very large returns by the time production begins next year.
"Thomas Elder Markets analyst Andrew Whitelaw said it was "a pretty scary situation"."Gas and energy prices have gone absolutely bonkers and fertiliser plants are now saying 'we cannot sell fertiliser based on the input cost of this gas'," Mr Whitelaw said."So they're starting to shutdown plants in Europe, which reduces a lot of supply from the global market and that is making [fertiliser] prices increase dramatically..
CRU Group head of fertilisers, Chris Lawson, said the situation was unlikely to change soon."The cost of producing nitrogen fertilisers, mainly ammonia, has skyrocketed in the last few months," he said."Given the current situation with Russia and its approach to supplying Europe with gas, it seems unlikely they're going to fall sharply soon."He said the United States and nations in the Middle East and northern Africa were looking to ramp up their own fertiliser production, which would alleviate some of the shortfall."But we don't think it's going to be quite enough," he said.Mr Lawson said European governments were quickly finding out how important fertilisers were to food security and "to economies ticking over" and was expecting a lot of lobbying in the coming weeks for governments to support fertiliser manufacturers."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2022-09-14/europe-fertiliser-shutdown-as-gas-prices-soar/101430708
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