fertilizer prices report 16 april 2010

Hi there
I found this report on fertilizer prices dated 16/4/2010
I hope IPL posters and holders find it helpful.


Fertilizer Prices Steady as Planting Begins
Weekly Fertilizer Review for April 16, 2010
Farmgate prices for fertilizer appear to be stable as farmers flock to the field, but wholesale
markets are starting to show a few rumblings this week.
The latest survey of Illinois production costs by USDA showed little change for popular nutrients,
with prices above winter lows but no indications yet of shortage-induced spikes. However,
ammonia for summer could be on the rise, making it more difficult to lock in fall application
supplies.
Heres a rundown on the current market, along with Farm Futures farmgate projected prices and
forward contracts for June:
Ammonia: Prices for anhydrous were steady at Gulf wholesale markets, while values eased at
the Black Sea a little this week, as storage is reported to be filled there. Costs to producers in
Illinois were steady at an average of $532 a ton in a range of $515 to $545, according to the
latest survey by USDA.
Forward contracts for June remain lower, but are up $22.50 a ton at the Gulf to $283.50,
suggesting a farmgate price of just under $500, according to the Farm Futures model. That
suggests producers should be scouting around for leftover supplies after planting, trying to get
them in the $450 to $475 range, maybe less.
Of course, the projected cost of making ammonia remains cheap. Prices for natural gas, the
primary feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilizers, are again struggling, after supplies in storage
reached record levels for the week following a bigger than expected injection. Stocks began
rebuilding earlier than normal, due to weak industrial demand. Nonetheless, many traders
appear to be bullish on gas, because its cheap compared to petroleum on a BTU basis.
Urea: Prices for urea are continuing to ease on international markets, despite the seasonal pick
up in demand, as inventories soared at the end of March to average levels. Quotes were off
$3.50 a ton out of the Black Sea, with the Gulf off almost $5, to $288.75. Forward contracts for
June out of the Black Sea are down another $10 this week, running $40 under the spot price.
Urea in Illinois was running around $435 this week, according to the USDA survey, in a range
between $394 and $470. The Farm Futures model suggests farmers should look to the low end
of that range, though June farmgate prices dont look a whole lot cheaper at this point.
DAP: Phosphate prices have been among the most volatile this year, and the spot wholesale
market appears to be firming as inventory levels at the end of March were down a little from
February, running below the five-year average. Prices at the Gulf edged up 6.50 a ton to
$419.50, with prices on the Plains quoted around $445.
Forward prices for June at the Gulf are about $40 cheaper, but could still be expensive at the
farmgate level. Prices in Illinois this week average $500 a ton in a range of $470 to $536,
according to USDA, suggesting dealers were still selling inventory bought before the big jump in
prices this winter.
Potash: Midwest prices reported to be easing as farmers were busy with fieldwork, but there
were more indications wholesale prices on the international market may be moving higher.
Brazil will apparently be paying more for supplies this summer, and the tactic by Canadian
producers to slash production appears to have worked; inventories were down again in March,
and are below average levels.
USDA reported an average price of $493 in Illinois this week, in a range from $460 to $550.
Farm Futures model continue to indicate fair value even lower.