Phosphate rapidly gaining interest as global situation deteriorates. Western Sahara phosphate was major source (~80-90% input) for Wesfarmers and Australias phosphate business as late as 2012 when ethical concerns finally convinced all but NZ co-ops to abandon “Moroccan” phosphate. I was long invested in Allana Potash in the Danakil Ethiopia until ICL buyout.
Current pricing
Wesfarmers gets ~$200 rock phosphate from China to produce ~$700 superphosphate for Australian farmers. I expect to see an increase in Australian agriculture as alternates to Russian-Ukrainian wheat are sourced and I expect the phosphate market to further heat up.
However, the idea that LYNAS can supply meaningful phosphate to Australian farmers is rather far fetched imho. They would not be supplying “rock phosphate” and so a new process and product would be needed, as we saw with Condisoil, requiring many years and many studies to satisfy regulatory, environmental and corporate concerns. Condisoil will never be produced or consumed outside Malaysia.
While you can pretty much just spread NUF-WLP on the ground as is, no one is going to do that in Australia without full set of studies. I strongly suspect no one in Australia will ever do that. Full disclosure: I’m heavily invested in AUS/US forage crops though S&W.
Another consideration is the amount of phosphate that Lynas is producing - It’s not that much at this point in time. A speciality product maybe but not for conversion to superphosphate. Certainly is not a resounding answer to the phosphate requirements of Australia which are 100s ktPpa.
Interesting reading today but not much to report wrt augmenting an investment case for Lynas. I don’t think WLP-NUF permanently goes to waste. And it won’t fit back in the hole (never going to happen anyway) so it’ll likely accumulate as it has in Malaysia.
Enjoyed reading up on phosphate as it has been years since I was interested but having done so I’m now interested again. Also looking into neon mining from atmosphere. Lots of interesting new resources challenges and investment opportunities coming.
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