fex 2021, page-590

g’day rookstar. Thanks for the lead to that Nov. ‘19 report. It fills in a lot of the questions I had. Long but good read. I hadn’t gone back that far. My bad.
but what’s missing still is what price they’ve achieved in their 2 offtake deals? Any ideas? I’ve tried to work it out from the data, without success. Surely it wouldn’t be that Us$78/don’t they use in their calculation of estimated Annual EBITDA of $16.4m.
as I’ve said, I just don’t know enough about the IO game and how it works. What’s the norm in these IO offtake deals? I can’t imagine any customer accepting spot. I’m guessing somewhere in between? But that’s a wild guess. I can now work out what EBITDA Would be with the current forex rate and spot. But unless we know or can guesstimate what the selling price is in their offtake deals, it’s impossible to know what that might be.

They’ve said there’s a premium built in for their higher grade. No mention of where that price sits between their US$78 and spot US$158 today, up $6 overnight.

Using spot of $158 and US$0.80 (currently 0.76); adds $128m for spot less $16m for higher $, for a net US$112m/A$140 EBITDA.

Using a midpoint, say US$120, gives an EBITDA of US$51m/A$64m. We just don’t know and we won’t know until they come out with some profit figures in the half yearly 6 months AFTER first income received.

Key obviously is trying to figure out that real selling price embedded in those two offtake agreements.

Cheers,

Ned.