All good Ned, just a different perspective thats all. The...

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rookstar

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07/02/21

12:35

Post #: 50772376
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Originally posted by redned71 ↑

ah ok, that makes sense now. You used $68 as a base. But that’s cash flow, not EBITDA. Doesn’t really change the way I did it.
there’s probably an error in my spreadsheet. I’ll be going over it later today. But not all that important. My number as I said for $168.05 at 0.77 is A$187m EBITDA; 17% higher than your number. I think you’re more likely to be correct. Not worth wasting too much time. I’m in the ball park; just off a little. Won’t make too much difference to the SP. I prefer a lower more conservative number anyway.
76/77 is a good number for the forex. 5 year high is 81. I think the US$ is headed for a continued period of weakness, so I wouldn’t want to use anything lower than 76/77. It’s the IO price that is the big kicker. Like copper, it is generally driven by the global situation, with supply issues on top. So as long as we don’t have a major market dump (which I think is a possibility in next 1-2 years), we should maintain at least say US$120, probably much more; particular in these critical next 3-9 months. Certainly the supply issues won’t be sorted quickly. We’re making serious money at $120; heaps more if higher as it is now.

so there should be rivers of cash flowing soon. Question is, what will they do with it? The other big question is what do you think about the 6.5 year LOM? To me that’s one of the reasons we’re not seeing higher valuation atm. until they say what they’re doing with the cash. Market won’t rerate it.

clearly that juicy 5 billion tons around Tombador that the Clough family own, is a key part of why TI1 is valued higher than FEX, even though well behind in development. The market does love blue sky potentials on top of solid base. Biggest risk to that imho, is the price the Cloughs will vend it in at.

one would expect FEX will have to say something sooner rather than later about what their intentions are with all that cash.

cheers,
ned.

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All good Ned, just a different perspective thats all.

The numbers are all relative and a guide at best, the diesel price alone with throw the numbers way out.

Still it was good to see a 2nd set of eyes over the numbers and i thank you for taking the time, much appreciated.

You mention TI1, perhaps when i'm more up to date i will meet you over there as opposed to discussing it here, that way we dont need to worry about cross promotion.

I'm still reading through TI1, when i have time, im on my phone at the moment which makes it hard.

Take care and have a good every day weekend.

FEX Price at posting: 23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 28.0¢		Change -0.015(5.08%)		Mkt cap ! $201.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
29.0¢	29.0¢	28.0¢	$504.6K	1.767M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	329727	27.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
28.0¢	17490	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	329727	0.275
5	62137	0.270
3	415107	0.265
3	42578	0.260
5	122753	0.255

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.280	17490	1
0.285	477069	2
0.290	202892	5
0.295	20000	1
0.300	291008	11

Last trade - 16.10pm 01/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

FEX (ASX) Chart

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All good Ned, just a different perspective thats all. The...

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