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3.92%

24.5¢ fenix resources ltd

Really appreciate the work you put into this.If you don't mind...

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investorNoob

223 Posts.

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18/08/21

16:05

Post #: 55389920
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Originally posted by Xistre: ↑

Last Qtrly activity report.

So, I've updated the model based on current SP and assuming shipments are on track etc, we should be at about EV of $50m at the end of August 2021 or SP of about 43c (if we think EV is still worth 90m - which is roughly around what it has been valued in the last few months). Also updated the FX rate to 0.74 from 0.75 (lower rate helps!) and downgraded the io future price. So the market *thinks* the EV has almost halved just because the i/o price has dropped? Obviously an overreaction. IO futures have also slightly increased already ~3%. Yellow highlights are the hedged periods.

I do note I haven't taken the tax or dividends into consideration at this time. For FY 2021, cf losses should help a lot to dappen tax payable at the very least.

**io future price completely fictional to include gradual decline and future sp based on 90m EV

I've also intentional put in a sale io price lower than my projected spot io, partly to take into effect the lag between spot and sales price. The reality is that FEX has premium grade so should be getting a bit higher than spot.

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Really appreciate the work you put into this.

If you don't mind sharing, what would this look like if you were more aggressive in dropping of IO price ?

FEX Price at posting: 30.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 24.5¢		Change -0.010(3.92%)		Mkt cap ! $176.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
25.5¢	26.0¢	24.5¢	$463.6K	1.846M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
16	440376	24.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
25.0¢	426123	6

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
16	440376	0.245
26	320916	0.240
9	534849	0.235
12	725288	0.230
3	439052	0.225

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.250	426123	6
0.255	166196	4
0.260	86342	4
0.265	95000	3
0.270	100000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 05/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

FEX (ASX) Chart