FEX Valuation, page-410

morning rooks.

that’s the question. Global markets sick atm. Hopefully part of something modest, like a 10% correction, as my US commentator Lance Roberts suggests (useful free read btw). But if it turns into something more ominous, then it will flow through to most markets including IO.
I’ve caught falling knives a few times. I’d rather pay a bit more later, once we know IO has either bottomed or is consolidating. Our resident chartist may have a view, but to my amateur eye, we’re in a sharp downtrend. Hedge doesn’t kick in for almost another month, so margin if any be thin atm. What do you think out outgoing freight cost might be, with VMS stating US$54 from Launceston which is about 1,000 nm further than we are. So maybe $40-45?
if IO goes lower, FEX management will have no choice but to reduce/eliminate divs to conserve cash to survive. Hope it doesn’t come to that, but right now, no one knows where the IO bottom is. Apart from what was already happening, we can add the global market dump.
so I’ll definitely be on the sidelines, until things settle. Happy to have sold a bit of dead wood. Wish I’d done more, but a bit late now. Main markets may come off 5-10%, but juniors get smashed.

cheers,

ned.