I'm just impressed with how well IO is holding up given the...

I'm just impressed with how well IO is holding up given the Chinese property sector issues, energy crisis and steel production cutbacks. I was fully expecting to see $90usd a ton till March, with price recovery after the Winter Olympics.

Most iron ore forecast over the next three years seem to range between $85usd and $110usd, with some analysts predicting $150usd again by the end of the 2021 calendar year. Analysts are usually very wrong with these predictions just because of the enormity of the task (think about how many assumptions are based on assumptions, with the error margins in each assumption being compounded). Overall its my opinion that there is less downside risk to current prices compared to upside potential.

Its worth remembering that FEX's feasibility study was done based on an iron ore price of $78usd. While costs such as shipping have gone up, we should see these costs eventually revert to the mean.

With the company's hedge at $169usd till Oct 2022, current cash balance, limited future CAPEX and commitment to paying dividends, its almost guaranteed shareholders at the current share price will be in profit over the medium term. It would take a total collapse of iron ore prices to see the company to stop production, something I can't see happening with the current infrastructure boom happening in countries such as the US and India (side note, could India be the next China for steel demand?).