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zacma

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07/12/14

12:21

Post #: 14422119
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Originally posted by rolling ↑

We may not have an oil glut but we do have an oil supply that is modestly surpassing demand. This supply appears to be able to more than meet any demand and any medium term demand increases. There are also no threats to supply. ISIS certainly aren't a threat to supply, yet.

The Saudis aren't currently capable of setting the oil price. The industry is too fractured for that. But what the Saudis can do is create an oil shock for producing nations that need $100++/barrel to balance their budgets and send the message that their current strategy of cut throat supply needs to be replaced with restraint and a more cooperative future.

The Saudis know oil needs to be at least $100. How long it takes for the recalcitrants to fall in line will be the possible time period before we see a turnaround.

Politically, I'm sure it suits the US'. The weakness in the oil price gives them more bargaining power with nations like Iran. We know how arrogant these major oil producing nations are. One way for the U.S.' to strengthen ability to influence them is to soften them up with lower oil prices.

Another way to strengthen your influence is to allow ISIS to destabilise the region. IRAN were getting friendly with China for example. All of a sudden, the U.S.' in recent times are becoming friendlier with Iran and the threat of ISIS has improved the U.S.' Influence. The fact that Iran needs an oil price of $180 to balance its budget helps too, as per the above paragraph.

Not much happens in the world that hasn't been fashioned.

Remember oil is a commodity. It is traded and manipulated to suit much bigger agendas than our modest agenda of a Disallowed.

Just to clarify the U.S.' stuff. They pretty much have an agenda to shape the world stage whilst they still can. The shaping started when they decided to oust Saddam Hussein. The U.S.' Know that their time is running out because of the near future presence of China on the world stage so they are making hey now.

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I thought the Switzer interview explained the current oil price malaise quite well. Did not seem to have so many variables, just the rising US dollar.

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