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Rolling

methinks you are correct !

the stuff abt shale-gas being un-economic @100 / 80 / 60 etc - IS NOT ABOUT the wells currrently producing ....its a full-cycle cost.....

Entertainingly - most of the shale players REQUIRE debt - to make a return on equity ......The public numbers suggest 1-1.5mm bbl/day "needs to be removed" .....and the "war" betwix middle-east and USA is just that - an economic war ......

There are some excellent posts on

http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-production-choke-theory/

and there is an analysis of prod forecasts, incld declines, and financing effects (shale plays "hedge" so that the banks "will lend" ......) ....to me - it will take 12-18 months to "remove the excess" ..........

Long-dated oil plays ....should do rather nicely .....on the other side of the abyss.....

rgds
V_H