Hi all
Suspect there's going to be a fair bit of chat on the ETF front, this week and hopefully more in the future.
First things first - for those that didn't spot it, FFX is now included in Van Eck's GDXJ gold ETF
Credit to @mystikal who actually called this out - although, you were a month late on your prediction mate... September not October
According to a tweet by Danika (running FFXs investment relations), here, the redistribution for the ETF is to move FFX to being a solid component of the ETF, with 49,703,019 shares, or $30,567,356.69.
For those of you without calculators, that's an assumption from the ETF that they can buy 49.7m shares at $0.615 / share!
Someone shit the bed in that assumption, it would seem. Today we're already 12% or so above that, and I'd hope for more strong days to follow this week. I believe that obtaining even 10million shares, let alone their planned 49.7m shares, at anything like $0.615 is highly unlikely. As for 49.7m shares at that price, no chance.
With today's activity of 27m total shares traded, even if the ETF bought ALL of those (which it absolutely did not) it would only be 60% of the way to its target with 20m left.
We have averaged about 5m shares traded per day in the last 2-3 weeks (with the exception of big news days / major pushes) - if they bought all 27m today (which they didn't) then their remaining 20m would match our 4 day total average traded volume to access their 49m target! (with the assumption of 4 trading days @5m/day)
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Now for things I don't know, but would love answers to:
- The rebalance numbers of the ETF - I couldn't find the source on Van Eck's site - anyone able to validate?
- To what extent are these rebalances stringently adhered to vs used as a loose guide? MUST the ETF meet that share number, and if so, is it exact or +/- a target?
- How long does the ETF have to obtain that rebalance? The next is due in another quarter
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