Directors selling is typically a useful indicator that SP pummels are coming.
I think directors need to buy back those shares they sold off recently.
I think someone malicious is successfully forcing FFX to trail AVZ out of spite.
Fundamentally, the ASX PM market is suffering from a severe stroke. This is the only sector AUS can depend upon if/when there is a global recession (IMO it's already here, but apparently 8.5% CPI (16% real) isn't reason enough to ring the bells). Could it could be a political fear driving this madness - we're assuming labour get in, the typical concern is an immediate push for higher taxes? Taxes and interest rates have to go up regardless, so to me it's a moot point. This astounding SP drop is signalling LLL is aiming to be dumped hard at IPO then strongly accumulated, but that makes absolutely no sense to me. It's confusing to see, but then again is it really, we've been in an irrational market for 3 years now, of course we're witnessing more craziness.
I may be reading this incorrectly so please correct/answer this: AUDUSD has expectedly lost value as large amounts of money flows into USD and bonds. Another sinking ship imo as inflation results in accelerating negative value, but they're running off a playbook. This is a good condition for Aussie miners being paid in USD at the moment. Is the medium term expectation that USD loses global reserve currency status, causing another sell off of gold? I lack the technical language to express it but for some reason I think a flight to gold is to be expected during or after this, or maybe that is already happening, I MEAN, LOOK AT WHAT GOLD AND SILVER HAVE BEEN DOING. Technically doing their job against yield curve. But still looks pathetic. This is not a free market. The result of this manipulation is mining companies simply mine low grade so that when a better spot price occurs, they can have a strong output. Any company mining the high grade regions right now is saying they don't expect spot to increase. Any company that is selling to Russia is selling at 2500USD an ounce, while western countries are only making 1850USD. This might indicate decent arbitrage. No more globalism - just trading blocks.
All speculation: ironically, LLL is on China's side, so that is likely safe. Most are convinced lithium futures are not budging any lower due to shortages. I'm still concerned about what happens is companies like Tesla drop 80%, hypothetically, will all lithium stocks sink with it anyway? There are plenty of other great companies that I expect to produce better EVs. Basically any other company
FFX is running on USD......... not safe until these spot price (derivative) distortions are resolved. But even with 1850 gold, to say FFX is worth even 450m is insane. To say LLL is worth less than 1B right now is insane. So what to do today... panic? This is the worst time to panic. I might sound pessimistic but I still believe this is the best time to accumulate all beaten down miners with some basic criteria:
- Will not depend on obtaining funding given rising interest rates
- Can dig using their own funding/cashflow
Miners will fail and be taken over if they cannot achieve these.
Both FFX and LLL are in a good standing there, which is why I am not panicking, but of course it is very disappointing to see these games played for the meantime. Also a great time for first time FFX investors!
