Hi
@tone76 ... Neither the short term nor the 5 year chart are showing a Cup and Handle. The rim of the cup is meant to be about the same height on both sides (otherwise your tea would spill out of one side). We definitely have the U shape middle of the cup, but would need to get to 80-90c before starting the handle for a C&H pattern to be observed.
Everywhere I look these days with people using TA they are finding cups and handles, some even find cups and saucers, but I've never seen a cup and saucer pattern. The percentage of wins are not that spectacular for C&Hs either. Getting a good indication of the statistics (at the time) are in Thomas Bulkowski's book and web page..
http://thepatternsite.com/
I've been using TA for over 30 years, and have learned many hard lessons along the way. What I find that works is mostly not in any book on TA as most TA is junk, and these days I find that individual stocks often seem to have a pattern 'painted' by institutions that break one way then quickly reverse and go the other.
The point of 'painting' a particular pattern would be to either buy or sell into the break, creating a much larger market to either offload or establish a large position. The more perfect looking a pattern the more likely it seems to fail these days.
I like using TA statistically, finding things that work a certain percentage of the time, then playing (trading) accordingly. I've often asked people that makes a claim about the current pattern on a stock, or one moving average has crossed another, or the stochastic is showing a buy etc, what percent of the time is this a winning trade? I've yet to get a reply as if it is a strange question, when in reality it is the only question!!
When looking at any TA do your own research and find what percent of the time this particular signal works, and how that signal is working in the current market, because my experience is that the winning percentages of any signal change over time. I look to use now, things that have been working now on other stocks (within the last few months).
TA is a statistics and percentages game, while FA is an identification and belief game. IMHO the fundamentals totally outweigh any short term TA on Firefinch at present, with the current market not believing how good the assets we own and the forward future earnings of the company (and Lithco).
A few weeks ago I identified a High Tight Flag on Firefinch which was a short term signal when we first broke upwards of 39.5c. That signal worked as it is one of the very few good TA signals, but still needs to be managed with care. I bought a few more trading shares based on that signal, but didn't sell them when I should have. We gained just over 25% going to 49.5c at the time, but I wasn't fast enough to sell those traders when the market turned on the coup news, so I still hold them.
You have to be fast and ruthless when using TA to trade with, buy and sell stops need to be set in stone, otherwise slippage kills performance.
