FHS Shareholders and Todd Decision Tree

Firstly I am not a FMS shareholder, but I am a RTA shareholder hence have been reading the FMS posts with interest.

I am surprised at the voice against the Todd offer for FMS, but can understand the frustration that there is no clear path for funds to flow to shareholders unlike the RTA offer.

I wish I could load a picture but I can't - so I will try to outline my view of the deal in words. It involves plotting out the various decisions with respect to the option agreement, firstly by FMS shareholders and if a Yes vote is made then by Todd including flow of funds. Details taken from the announcement of the Todd option.

Decision 1. FMS Shareholders on Todd Option:
No - Project put into care and maintenance for 3-5 years, to develop it would require alternative transport route and new funding partner.
Yes - Receive $10m go to Decision 2.

Decision 2. Todd 31/12/16 Option Extension:
No - same outcome as Decision 1 No, but $10m better off
Yes - Receive $10m go to Decision 3.

Decision 3. Todd 31/12/18 Option Extension:
No - same outcome as Decision 1 No, but $20m better off
Yes - Receive $10m go to Decision 4.

Decision 4. Todd 31/12/20 No more option extension possible so Buy or Not:
No - same outcome as Decision 1 No, but $30m better off
Yes - Receive $55m go to Decision 5.

Decision 5. Todd, Develop project within 2 years of option exercise
No - FMS receives $20m plus potential royalty if and when developed
Yes - Royalty stream

Note Todd may exercise option to buy between a FMS s/h yes vote and 31/12/20, in which case they would effectively go straight to Decision 4 Yes and pay the $55m but could skip some of the $10m extension payments.

So what are the potential outcomes for a FMS S/H Yes vote:
1. Get it back in 1.5 years +$10m (I would say much better than No because $10m is received)
2. Get it back in 3.5 years +$20m (Still better than No)
3. Get it back in 5.5 years +$30m (Ok it is a long time, but $30m is a lot and if the Todd plan doesn't work in this time frame then I doubt a go it alone plan would either)
4. Option exercise and sit on it, FMS receives a minimum of $10m+$55m+$20m = $85m, potentially $20m more if the options are extended.
5. Option exercise and develop it, FMS receives a minimum of $65m + royalty stream

I feel 1-3 are better than No as FMS get to keep it + the money + all the DFS work done (what every that is, it is better than just care and maintenance), 4 and 5 is where FMS S/H need to get a commitment from management to payout special dividends or such like for FMS shareholders to benefit....