fiction can be fun

We’ve got something a little different going on now on HC Lynas forum methinks.

A while back I implored posters for some reasonable discussion. I asked holders for some good realistic negative points as well as the typical positive stuff and I asked non-holders for some good realistic positive points as well as the typical negative stuff.

Neither has happened. You are all behaving desperately and slinging fecal matter at each other.

I will implore again. If all of you stick to posting facts, not media nonsense, not speculation but facts and then discussing these facts ad nauseum you will all be better for it and more informed to boot. Organising the rabble on this forum and requesting consistent and coherent discussion is like herding cats. Nigh on impossible

Fact 1. Uprampers and Downrampers. This terminology exists and to be honest I had never heard the terminology until I registered as a user on HC. It exists for a reason. Posting, however subtle, sly or obvious on HC and other forums CAN and DOES impact the price of either illiquid or speculative stocks or both. This is not an unreasonable statement and I challenge for a contrary argument. If you would stop posting rubbish and speculation, you would find something pleasant in the stock price I am sure. Whether temporary or permanent who knows?

Fact 2. This article from FN Arena was just plain toxic and you are stupid if you either bought or sold because of it. As for whether it was a conspiracy or whatever. Who knows and who cares. As for the price range in the article (err let’s call it a range) of 20c to $1.49, I have a hard time believing that a 700 million dollar brand new LAMP isn’t worth 700 million. Even if is a white elephant and gets sold to the Chinese and Lynas gives up. I have a hard time believing that 200 million of cash at bank isn’t worth…well 200 million. I have a hard time believing land in WA and mining licenses with massive Rare Earth resources Light or Heavy or both aren’t worth in the several hundreds of million even thought they may be unmined.

DISCUSSION POINT: Therefore I have a hard time believing a factually incorrect and hopelessly conflicted article suggesting a price target of 20 cents which equals a market cap for Lynas of about 320 million. Possible but hard to believe. Somewhere around $1.49 when there is almost universal broker consensus at or above this…is believable.

Fact 3: If you are forming an investment decision based on articles or news media in any format, gossip, discussion forums etc etc, then you are clearly an idiot. You use annual reports and company announcements and official releases like the professionals do. You don’t have to be a professional. But if you are putting hard earned into an investment, then you ought to try to be.

DISCUSSION POINT: Check your emotions, frustrations and other stuff as you would your baggage and coat. Check that stuff at the door before you enter.

Fact 4 – BIG FACT: Cross-reference FACT 1, not everyone is your friend. I am not suggesting they are your enemy but if you are an investor in this or any stock, a trader that creates volatility in any way shape or form, is not your friend. No action is “necessarily necessary” however; buyers are sellers in and of themselves and by their very nature create volatility (i.e. movement) in a stock. This is the very reason for existence of Secondary Markets. Buyer and sellers are brought together. The result is exchange. Therefore the result is volatility.

DISCUSSION POINT: (with full respect) Resulting from the above fact 1 and 4 a Chartist is not your friend. Simple. Inaliable. Truth. Do not mistake casual language as “friendship” as an inference that a chartist is your enemy. My context for this is volatility and the fear that seems to grip people in relation to it. The only vested interest they have is the data and what the chart says. I think even a chartist could put their hand on their “Heart” and say this is true enough. They “do” or “do not” as the chart says. Notwithstanding the obvious ‘grandfather paradox’ (Google this term if you do not know what I mean by this) which I personally cannot reconcile which is why I am a FA not a TA.

Stick to the facts. You won’t be wrong whatever you decide. And you won’t be disappointed either. Look at the FACTS of what we know about Lynas. Filter out the fear. If you like what you see then great. If not, then great. Don’t just blame the media. It’s not personal. A good story is a good story. Even if it is paid for. Good news does not sell newspapers. I went to FN Arena website today which I have never ever visited and probably won’t go there again any time soon. However I read a few articles. How many thousands of more people did today also? Good news does not sell newspapers. Congratulations you did them a favour.

I'll be around. I think I have posted my email address previously.

Cheers and good luck to all.

Don’t feed the beast.