field size, page-10

keganv...

Good post.

When the tide goes out...and all boats fall...those that do not have something a little special about them.

The extent of the recent wider market demise, combined with the stended period of no news from KEY, in essence has groomed the profile of the register...specifically the free float...to a more investor centric mix.

I am sure there will be plenty happy to sell on good new...but as it currently stands, these are likely to be outnumbered by new buyers, specifically larger ones, who typically wait for confirming news on gas/oil plays prior to entering.

The field size announcement is an extremely important one...both KEY and Aminex would be well aware of this. It will be the sort of information larger buyers (sophs, special situation funds and instos), will use to assess an entry...OR NOT!

Given the degree of conficting data with the sesimic, the apparent complex fault compartmentalisation, the lower GWC and of course fantastic flow rates...against a backdrop of less than expected results at K-1, I suspect the JV will be taking every measure to check and double check their field analysis prior to release.

Significant numbers here will re-rate both companies...they want to get it right.

Personally I am happy to sit it out as long as it takes.

On a side note it has ben mentioned on more than one ocassion that oil shows were encountered higher up...and whilst we know the gas flow rates and associated condensate, nothing has been mentioned to date of the potential commerciality of the oil.

Of course, this has been the ellusive prize in Tanzania...and whilst I am not expecting Kiliwani North to become an oil well, it is possible that some oil production may not be such a surprise.

Even if not, the oil shows here, combined with confirmation of effective seal between us and Songo Song via the lower GWC...it is entirely possible that several targets east of the sealing fault between us and Songo Songo may well be upgraded to oil targets?

The oil is there somewhere...perhaps the Kiliwanin North results have helped point us in the right direction?

Cheers!